Closer by committee?

[ruralgopher]

Looks like that is how they are leaning. I'm OK with it as I agree with Jim Caple in that closers are over-rated.

[Gopher in Qatar]

Looks like that is how they are leaning. I'm OK with it as I agree with Jim Caple in that closers are over-rated.


After watching the differing fortunes of Mariano Rivera and Ron Davis, I tend to disagree.

[ruralgopher]

After watching the differing fortunes of Mariano Rivera and Ron Davis, I tend to disagree.

Although it is hard to argue such rock solid evidence as that, I think the numbers tell a different story...
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=caple/080805

[Pewterschmidt]

While I agree that the closer position is overrated, the difference between 2 relief pitchers can be measured.

Nathan's VORP (SABR Metric that defines a player's value compared to the average replacement player) has consistently been 27 or higher over the past 5 years. He's had the highest value every year of any Twin reliever over that span. Guerrier's '09 VORP was close to Nathan's but his previous 3 seasons were really not that close at all. If Guerrier matches his '09 VORP in '10 and he ends up being the primary closer, the Twins won't be that much worse off in the 9th inning, assuming the pressure of the situation doesn't get the best of Guerrier.

Where there's a HUGE difference is the player that will replace Nathan in the bullpen, i.e. someone like Mahay, or Condrey, or Duesning, etc. That's where the VORP really comes into play. A Twins pen with Nathan is immensely better than one without him. It's not just who closes games, it's who takes the roster spot. Now everyone gets pushed up a spot in the pen, assuming no one outside the org is brought in that is comparable to Nathan in terms of VORP.

Losing Nathan and not replacing his spot in the pen with a comparable pitcher will cost the Twins roughly 5 games (all else held equal) if the '09 VORP stats are correct. In what I think will be a competitive AL Central race between Chicago, Detroit, and the Twins, that could make all of the difference.

So to sum up: I'm less worried about taking the next best reliever on the roster and making him the closer than I am about who actually gets Nathan's spot on the roster. That's where the big difference resides.

[gopher_alum_2005]

My only hope is that Glen Perkins doesn't make the team.

[Pewterschmidt]

My only hope is that Glen Perkins doesn't make the team.

You got your wish. Joe Christenson reported this morning that Perkins and Ramos were assigned to the Minor League camp. In doing so, it locks down the opening day roster for the most part. The only piece left is if Clay Condrey's shoulder is healthy enough to make the roster. If not, Ron Mahay takes is spot while he's on the DL.

Since Ramos was sent down, it means Drew Butera (son of Sal and one of the pieces the Twins got in the Castillo trade to the Mets 2 years ago) is the backup catcher. Aaron Gleeman (aarongleeman.com) thinks that Butera might be the worst hitter in baseball to make an opening day roster. His minor league stats back up that claim. What's worse is I've read some scouting reports that suggest he's at best average behind the plate. That's not a good combination. Hopefully Jose Morales gets healthy soon so Butera can be sent down. By having Butera on the roster, it delays Ramos' service time clock, which is the factor in determining when he becomes eligible for arbritration and free agency. It also ensures he gets plenty of ABs in New Britian or Rochester. All of that won't prevent me from cringing every time I see Butera's name in the lineup until Morales is back in Minnesota.

[ruralgopher]

Good point Pewter about overall decline of the bullpen depth. I agree with that far more than the essential need for a defined closer.

[station19]

By May or June the Twins will trade for a closer. Keep an eye on Slama in the minors.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=slama-001ant