10 in the hunt for 6 available bids (March 13)

[SelectionSunday]

I've narrowed it to 10 teams fighting for the final 6 at-large bids. Of those 10, six (Gophers, Illinois, Mississippi State, Rhode Island, San Diego State & Washington) still have the opportunity to earn an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

The Gophers have accomplished what seemed impossible just over a week ago after the Michigan debacle. ... the win over Sparty has given them -- win or lose vs. Purdue -- a fighting chance to receive an at-large bid when the pairings are announced Sunday evening.

I will post my final "Field of 65" selections sometime early Sunday morning (likely between 1-3 a.m.). Here's hoping the Gophers just seal the deal by going ahead & winning two more games.

Teams in bold ALL CAPS have earned automatic bids. RPI (courtesy of CollegeRPI.com) is listed in parentheses.

Automatics (31)
1. Kansas (1)
2. Duke (2)
3. Kentucky (3)
4. West Virginia (4)
5. BUTLER (13)
6. Temple (16)
7. NORTHERN IOWA (17)
8. Cal (19)
9. Utah State (26)
10. Ohio State (27)
11. OLD DOMINION (28)
12. SIENA (32)
13. UTEP (33)
14. ST. MARY'S (36)
15. UNLV (42)
16. CORNELL (48)
17. OAKLAND (52)
18. MURRAY STATE (55)
19. WOFFORD (70)
20. Sam Houston State (77)
21. Akron (85)
22. MONTANA (97)
23. UCSB (100)
24. NORTH TEXAS (104)
25. Morgan State (105)
26. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (122)
27. ROBERT MORRIS (127)
28. Vermont (128)
29. LEHIGH (152)
30. WINTHROP (160)
31. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (186)

Locks (28)
1. Syracuse (5)
2. Kansas State (6)
3. Georgetown (7)
4. Baylor (8)
5. Purdue (9)
6. New Mexico (10)
7. Tennessee (11)
8. Villanova (12)
9. Texas A&M (14)
10. Pitt (15)
11. Xavier (18)
12. Vanderbilt (20)
13. Wisconsin (21)
14. BYU (22)
15. Maryland (23)
16. Richmond (25)
17. Michigan State (29)
18. Oklahoma State (30)
19. Texas (31)
20. Clemson (34)
21. Georgia Tech (35)
22. Wake Forest (37)
23. Gonzaga (38)
24. Louisville (40)
25. Florida State (41)
26. Missouri (44)
27. Notre Dame (49)
28. Marquette (50)

On the Bubble (10 for 6 available bids)
1. San Diego State (24) -- at UNLV (Mountain West title game)
2. Rhode Island (39) -- vs. Temple (A-10 semifinal)
3. Washington (46) -- vs. Cal (Pac 10 title game)
4. Florida (54) -- season complete
5. Virginia Tech (56) -- season complete
6. William & Mary (57) -- season complete
7. Seton Hall (59) -- season complete
8. Mississippi State (64) -- vs. Vanderbilt (SEC semifinal)
9. GOPHERS (69) -- vs. Purdue (Big 10 semifinal)
10. Illinois (73) -- vs. Ohio State (Big 10 semifinal)

For what it's worth, I think Rhode Island and Mississippi State are the weakest of the remaining at-large candidates. I can't see either one receiving an at-large bid without another win in their conference tournament.

GOPHERS SATURDAY CHECKLIST
If you're a Gopher fan, root for these things to happen today. ...

1. Duke over Miami-Florida (Miami potential bid stealer)
2. Georgia Tech over NC State (Miami potential bid stealer)
3. Temple over Rhode Island (keep URI on the bubble)
4. Ohio State over Illinois (keep Illinois on the bubble)
5. UTEP over Houston (Houston potential bid stealer)
6. Morgan State over South Carolina State (win for Gophers over automatic qualifier)
7. UNLV over San Diego State (keep SDSU on the bubble)
8. Cal over Washington (keep U-Dub on the bubble)
9. Vanderbilt over Mississippi State (knock MSU off the bubble)
10. Stephen F. Austin over Sam Houston State (win for Gophers over automatic qualifier)
11. Utah State over New Mexico State (NMSU potential bid stealer)

[GopherCrazy]

GOPHERS SATURDAY CHECKLIST
If you're a Gopher fan, root for these things to happen today. ...

1. Duke over Miami-Florida (Miami potential bid stealer)
2. Georgia Tech over NC State (Miami potential bid stealer)
3. Temple over Rhode Island (keep URI on the bubble)
4. Ohio State over Illinois (keep Illinois on the bubble)
5. UTEP over Houston (Houston potential bid stealer)
6. Morgan State over South Carolina State (win for Gophers over automatic qualifier)
7. UNLV over San Diego State (keep SDSU on the bubble)
8. Cal over Washington (keep U-Dub on the bubble)
9. Vanderbilt over Mississippi State (knock MSU off the bubble)
10. Stephen F. Austin over Sam Houston State (win for Gophers over automatic qualifier)
11. Utah State over New Mexico State (NMSU potential bid stealer)

I think you forgot Gophers over Purdue ;)

[In Tubby We Trust]

Thanks SS!

Georgia Tech over NC State (Miami potential bid stealer)....are both these teams bid stealers?

[rrjackIII]

" I will post my final "Field of 65" selections sometime early Sunday morning (likely between 1-3 a.m.). "

SS - I wonder if you are possibly hurting the ratings for CBS's Selection Sunday show. I am almost looking forward to your your selections early Sunday Morning more than the THE SHOW's.

Thanks for your work on this.

How will yo deal with the 4 remaining games to be played on Sunday afternoon? Will you have contingency scenarios?

[Blizzard]

SS,

Maybe a stupid question but if Wisconsin had won and of course we have our victory over Mich St, would the Gophers position have changed or would we have been more or less closed to a lock?

[BornandRaisedGopher]

Did Miami get its RPI below 100?

[Section201]

I have to root for Duke today ????????????????

I hate that.


:mad:
:eek:
:cry:

[Section201]

Did Miami get its RPI below 100?

Per RealtimeRPI, NO. Currently RPI=106

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_acc_Men.html

[josh087]

Georgia Tech is going to be in the tourney. They are not a bid stealer.

[SelectionSunday]

(1) Miami's RPI is now below 100 (#96) according to CollegeRPI.com. That's good. ... 1 less "bad loss" for the Gophers. I would imagine the 'Canes will stay below 100 even if they lose to the Dukies.

(2) Yes, if necessary I will have contingencies for any bubble teams/bid stealers from the ACC, A-10, Big 10 or SEC who play in a conference title game Sunday. In all likelihood, there'll be no more than 2. Those are easy to work around. I'd just establish a pecking order for the last few teams "in". I'd make it clear which team(s) would get bumped from the field if a bid-stealer or two wins on Sunday.

(3) I have Georgia Tech as a lock. Virginia Tech is the only team from the ACC that I have on the bubble.

(4) Even if Illinois had lost yesterday, I still wouldn't have the Gophers as a lock heading into today. Their resume just isn't strong enough to lock them in, though I do like their resume better than most of the others.

Miscellaneous thoughts
Illinois is in the strongest position of those not locked into the field. The Illini are the only one that has 5 top-50 wins, and 3 of those (@Clemson, @ Wisconsin, vs. Wisconsin) came on the road or a neutral court. Only 2 other bubblers (the Gophers and Seton Hall) have 4 top-50 wins. In a year where the bubble is really weak, I think that bodes well for the Gophers, barring a ton of upsets the next couple days. Certainly a win over Purdue would seal the deal, but I like their chances anyways.

There are 5 criteria I look at most closely (one is road/neutral record, for which the Gophers are dead last at 6-9 among the 10 bubble teams), but when it gets down to the nitty gritty for picking the last few teams, I usually refer back to a team's record vs. the top 50. I want proof that a team can beat a NCAA-caliber opponent. Through Friday, here are the bubble teams' records vs. the top 50 in the RPI:

1. Illinois (5-8)
2. Gophers (4-6)
3. Seton Hall (4-9)
4. William & Mary (3-3)
5. Virginia Tech (3-4)
6. San Diego State (3-5)
7. Florida (3-8)
8. Washington (2-2)
9. Rhode Island (1-4)
10. Mississippi State (1-4)

I think this shows why I don't like Rhode Island and Mississippi State very much. My opinion is both must win today (URI vs. Temple, Mississippi State vs. Vandy) to have any chance. They are in the mist dire need of a quality win, one like the Illini (Badgers), Gophers (MSU) and San Diego State (New Mexico) all earned yesterday.

If you twisted my arm, as of this morning I'd say the Big Ten is much more likely to get 6 bids than 4.

[BornandRaisedGopher]

Per RealtimeRPI, NO. Currently RPI=106

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_acc_Men.html

I don't think that takes in to account yesterday's games.

[Friend Of Tubby]

(1) Miami's RPI is now below 100 (#96) according to CollegeRPI.com. That's good. ... 1 less "bad loss" for the Gophers. I would imagine the 'Canes will stay below 100 even if they lose to the Dukies.

(2) Yes, if necessary I will have contingencies for any bubble teams/bid stealers from the ACC, A-10, Big 10 or SEC who play in a conference title game Sunday. In all likelihood, there'll be no more than 2. Those are easy to work around. I'd just establish a pecking order for the last few teams "in". I'd make it clear which team(s) would get bumped from the field if a bid-stealer or two wins on Sunday.

(3) I have Georgia Tech as a lock. Virginia Tech is the only team from the ACC that I have on the bubble.

(4) Even if Illinois had lost yesterday, I still wouldn't have the Gophers as a lock heading into today. Their resume just isn't strong enough to lock them in, though I do like their resume better than most of the others.

Miscellaneous thoughts
Illinois is in the strongest position of those not locked into the field. The Illini are the only one that has 5 top-50 wins, and 3 of those (@Clemson, @ Wisconsin, vs. Wisconsin) came on the road or a neutral court. Only 2 other bubblers (the Gophers and Seton Hall) have 4 top-50 wins. In a year where the bubble is really weak, I think that bodes well for the Gophers, barring a ton of upsets the next couple days. Certainly a win over Purdue would seal the deal, but I like their chances anyways.

There are 5 criteria I look at most closely (one is road/neutral record, for which the Gophers are dead last at 6-9 among the 10 bubble teams), but when it gets down to the nitty gritty for picking the last few teams, I usually refer back to a team's record vs. the top 50. I want proof that a team can beat a NCAA-caliber opponent. Through Friday, here are the bubble teams' records vs. the top 50 in the RPI:

1. Illinois (5-8)
2. Gophers (4-6)
3. Seton Hall (4-9)
4. William & Mary (3-3)
5. Virginia Tech (3-4)
6. San Diego State (3-5)
7. Florida (3-8)
8. Washington (2-2)
9. Rhode Island (1-4)
10. Mississippi State (1-4)

I think this shows why I don't like Rhode Island and Mississippi State very much. My opinion is both must win today (URI vs. Temple, Mississippi State vs. Vandy) to have any chance. They are in the mist dire need of a quality win, one like the Illini (Badgers), Gophers (MSU) and San Diego State (New Mexico) all earned yesterday.

If you twisted my arm, as of this morning I'd say the Big Ten is much more likely to get 6 bids than 4.

Gophers M-U-S-T W today to have any chance. 20-13 won't dance. 21-13 might. 22-12 WILL.

[jmag21]

Gophers M-U-S-T W today to have any chance. 20-13 won't dance. 21-13 might. 22-12 WILL.


Right now, I'd say 20-13 gives us a 50% shot, 21 wins gives us about a 90% chance, and 22 obviously gives us a 100% shot. So let's just win out, eh?


And FOT?


SCREW YOUR BOILERS!

[Section201]

I don't think that takes in to account yesterday's games.

On second look, you are correct:

"Last updated - Fri Mar 12 09:30:02 PST 2010"

I guess that suggests they really are not REAL TIME !

:)

[Friend Of Tubby]

Right now, I'd say 20-13 gives us a 50% shot, 21 wins gives us about a 90% chance, and 22 obviously gives us a 100% shot. So let's just win out, eh?


And FOT?


SCREW YOUR BOILERS!

Boilers have a chance at Most W in school history (currently 29 W is the record).

[fan of Ray Williams]

Boilers have a chance at Most W in school history (currently 29 W is the record).

With all due respect, boast about their chance at the record on a Boiler site. I ain't interested today my friend.

[boston.gopher]

SS, one question for you:

If Illinois and Minnesota are so close when it comes to an at large bid, how do you account for Minnesota's win at Illinois? It would seem to me that if there was a question of which one of these teams should make it in it would be the Gophers for winning the head to head, on the road no less.

[Anderson8284]

On a guess, Illinois' good wins on the road/neutral sites are better than ours.

I'm really really regretting that loss to Indiana, and that loss to A&M....

[SelectionSunday]

All things being equal, if it absolutely came down to the Gophers or Illini -- one but not the other -- in that that situation I'd take the Gophers. Illinois' resume is better in my opinion, but in a case like that where the two teams were so similar in so many ways and there was a head-to-head meeting that the road team won, I'd take the team that won.

It's highly unlikely it will come down to a Illinois-Gophers mano-e-mano. All that said, as of today if I'm "peeling the onion" so to speak, Illiniois would be the first team I pluck out of the 10 that aren't locked in.

[Gold Vision]

Gophers M-U-S-T W today to have any chance. 20-13 won't dance. 21-13 might. 22-12 WILL.

Tell us why you know more than most bracketologists? You keep stating this with no factual. backup.

[jovs]

If Minnesota and Illinois both get to the title game, does only the automatic bid get in. Are some of the locks at risk of not being a lock in that case.

[boston.gopher]

I cant wait until this evening when things will get a little clearer for everyone!

[GophersOnTheRise]

Tell us why you know more than most bracketologists? You keep stating this with no factual. backup.

Inside he knows that we have a chance even if we lose. It's just what he's been saying all along and he's too stubborn to admit he's wrong.

[jjgopher]

SS, are we in agreement..... If UTEP, Temple, Vanderbilt, and Utah State win, we are pretty much a lock. After looking over everything, and double checking, I am pretty confident.

[bga1]

(1) Miami's RPI is now below 100 (#96) according to CollegeRPI.com. That's good. ... 1 less "bad loss" for the Gophers. I would imagine the 'Canes will stay below 100 even if they lose to the Dukies.

(2) Yes, if necessary I will have contingencies for any bubble teams/bid stealers from the ACC, A-10, Big 10 or SEC who play in a conference title game Sunday. In all likelihood, there'll be no more than 2. Those are easy to work around. I'd just establish a pecking order for the last few teams "in". I'd make it clear which team(s) would get bumped from the field if a bid-stealer or two wins on Sunday.

(3) I have Georgia Tech as a lock. Virginia Tech is the only team from the ACC that I have on the bubble.

(4) Even if Illinois had lost yesterday, I still wouldn't have the Gophers as a lock heading into today. Their resume just isn't strong enough to lock them in, though I do like their resume better than most of the others.

Miscellaneous thoughts
Illinois is in the strongest position of those not locked into the field. The Illini are the only one that has 5 top-50 wins, and 3 of those (@Clemson, @ Wisconsin, vs. Wisconsin) came on the road or a neutral court. Only 2 other bubblers (the Gophers and Seton Hall) have 4 top-50 wins. In a year where the bubble is really weak, I think that bodes well for the Gophers, barring a ton of upsets the next couple days. Certainly a win over Purdue would seal the deal, but I like their chances anyways.

There are 5 criteria I look at most closely (one is road/neutral record, for which the Gophers are dead last at 6-9 among the 10 bubble teams), but when it gets down to the nitty gritty for picking the last few teams, I usually refer back to a team's record vs. the top 50. I want proof that a team can beat a NCAA-caliber opponent. Through Friday, here are the bubble teams' records vs. the top 50 in the RPI:

1. Illinois (5-8)
2. Gophers (4-6)
3. Seton Hall (4-9)
4. William & Mary (3-3)
5. Virginia Tech (3-4)
6. San Diego State (3-5)
7. Florida (3-8)
8. Washington (2-2)
9. Rhode Island (1-4)
10. Mississippi State (1-4)

I think this shows why I don't like Rhode Island and Mississippi State very much. My opinion is both must win today (URI vs. Temple, Mississippi State vs. Vandy) to have any chance. They are in the mist dire need of a quality win, one like the Illini (Badgers), Gophers (MSU) and San Diego State (New Mexico) all earned yesterday.

If you twisted my arm, as of this morning I'd say the Big Ten is much more likely to get 6 bids than 4.

Okay - here's a scenario- lets say EVERY one of the rest of the bubblers lose today including the beloved Gophers. Lets further say that there are no more "stolen bids". How do you like our chance in that setting?

BTW- I think we are going to beat the Boilers anyway.

[gopherbadgerman]

I agree with FOT - I am not at all tring to state it as fact, but I would be really nervous without a win today. And I would tend to think they did not play themselves in without a win today, just put themselves in the conversation. I think with a win today, the Gops played themselves in.

[SelectionSunday]

My opinion is, leaving room for let's say 2 bid stealers, the Gophers have a slightly better than 50% chance of getting a bid if they lose today, will be a mortal lock if they win.

That's it for today. So many things can still happen. Time to watch the games, hope for results that most benefit the Gophers & then make my final selections sometime after the WAC title game is over. See ya' then. Beat Purdue.

[JAYMEDINC]

MSNBC has us in. Let's beat Purdue so everyone agrees!

http://beyondthearc.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2010/03/13/2227288.aspx

[XMan]

Tell us why you know more than most bracketologists? You keep stating this with no factual. backup.

FOT posts predictions on outcomes all the time with no backup. Why would he stop now.

[Section201]

I can not wait for your update!