OSU Game

Based on the Predict the score submissions people seem to be pretty confident that we are going to beat OSU on Saturday. Why? Evan Turner is back so we will be facing the team that was pretty much the concensus #3 pick in the Big Ten this season at full strength. I am going to be pleasantly surprised if we pull it out.

Some of the picks were made before it was known for sure that Turner was back, but I still don't think he'll be at full strength this weekend. It'll be close, but I think the Gophers can pull it out.

I think the reason they were the consensus #3 pick in the Big Ten and not picked to win the title is because they figure to lose a handful of games like this weekend's. They are good, but not good enough to just walk into another pretty good team's Big Ten venue and be a big favorite and win. That's not to say OSU won't win this Saturday, they very well might. But, just because they are picked to finish 3rd doesn't mean we shouldn't be favored at home against them. We were tabbed just a small notch below them and playing at home gives us the edge (on paper).

Just an update.

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP)—Jon Diebler scored 21 points and Evan Turner returned early from an injury to give Ohio State a boost in a 79-54 victory over Indiana on Wednesday night.

Turner played his first game since breaking two bones in his lower back while dunking during the Buckeyes’ Dec. 5 victory over Eastern Michigan. The original prognosis was that he would be out eight weeks, but he was back in 4 1/2 weeks. He had eight points, five assists and five rebounds in 19 minutes for the Buckeyes (11-4, 1-2 Big Ten), who had lost their first two Big Ten games on the road without Turner.

Verdell Jones III had 22 points and Christian Watford 11 for the Hoosiers (7-7, 1-1), playing their first game on an opposing team’s home court this season.

It was reading that recap that led me to post this (I didn't watch the game). Sounds like Turner filled up the stat sheet pretty well in limited minutes, granted it was against Indiana. I am betting we see Turner play his normal 30+ minutes against us. Just wanted to make everyone aware that Turner will be back and likely at full strength.

Diebler/Simmons/Hill are the key. Lauderdale won't do anything in the post (please dear God Tubby don't double him).

If two of those guys gets 9-15 pts on 3s each it will be very difficult to win. Turner can get his 20 pts and the Gophers are still in good shape but if they let these guys hit outside shots there will be trouble at Williams.

Expect plenty of pressure on Hill - we'll see if he can handle it. The Buckeyes are not that deep so if we can make these guys run a little bit it could tire them out and make their outside jumpers suffer some.

The inside defenders have to be able to play great help defense when Turner is on the drive.

Ulmer

In the last three weeks we`ve seen Westbrook,Hoff and Carter all score in the 20`s. If we can put put two players together on the same night we`ve got a chance. Ind. showed no resistance last night. That should make a big difference and if we can get near the home cooking Purdue got we should be right there.

Must win on Saturday with the upcoming schedule, Turner or not. If we play our game at home we should take care of business. A win will help us play much looser against Mich St. A loss would put a whole different spin on the season. Gophers by 10.

OSU

OSU doesn't scare me a bit. I think they were overrated to begin with based on the fact they had what a lot of folks thought to be the one best player in the conference.

The chances of Turner being at 100% Saturday seem pretty small and I dont think he can go 30 minutes anyway.

I think our defense will frustrate and exhaust them.

They are not Purdue, MSU or even bucky.

I will admit that playing AT OSU is a different matter.

IMHO.

ulmer said:

In the last three weeks we`ve seen Westbrook,Hoff and Carter all score in the 20`s.

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When did Carter score in the 20s?

Ulmer

I stand corrected, for some reason I thought Carter had dropped 20 on Purdue, I guess just watching him play the way he did I just filled in the blanks myself, is wishful thinking better than not thinking?

Section201 said:

OSU doesn't scare me a bit. I think they were overrated to begin with based on the fact they had what a lot of folks thought to be the one best player in the conference.

The chances of Turner being at 100% Saturday seem pretty small and I dont think he can go 30 minutes anyway.

I think our defense will frustrate and exhaust them.

They are not Purdue, MSU or even bucky.

I will admit that playing AT OSU is a different matter.

IMHO.

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Ohio State shouldn't scare you, but they simply have superior talent at every position in the starting line-up. Let's take a look:

David Lighty vs. Al Nolen. Lighty: 13.5 PPG.
Jon Deibler vs. Lawrence Westbrook. Diebler: 15 PPG and an astounding 48 percent from 3s.
William Buford vs. Blake Hoffarber. Buford scores more and is much more physical. I think Hoffarber is one of the most valuable players on this team, but can't stand up to Buford athletically.
Evan Turner vs. Damian Johnson. Evan Turner at 75 percent is better than Damian Johnson. Sorry, I love Johnson, but Turner is a special talent.
Dallas Lauderdale vs. Colton Iverson. Lauderdale 7.6 PPG and 5.6 RPG. Iverson is not a good college basketball player IMO.

Minnesota, however, has the advantage on the bench.

I dont think evan turner will have GREAT games against us in either game this year. we have guys(damian and paul) that are his size that defend well, they are not deep, and tubby will gameplan to contain his production. If we let their other weapons beat us then we deserve to lose. Plus we're due for some calls Saturday. If hoff has the assignment of gaurding evan then void this post

BigGopherFan said:

Ohio State shouldn't scare you, but they simply have superior talent at every position in the starting line-up. Let's take a look:

David Lighty vs. Al Nolen. Lighty: 13.5 PPG.
Jon Deibler vs. Lawrence Westbrook. Diebler: 15 PPG and an astounding 48 percent from 3s.
William Buford vs. Blake Hoffarber. Buford scores more and is much more physical. I think Hoffarber is one of the most valuable players on this team, but can't stand up to Buford athletically.
Evan Turner vs. Damian Johnson. Evan Turner at 75 percent is better than Damian Johnson. Sorry, I love Johnson, but Turner is a special talent.
Dallas Lauderdale vs. Colton Iverson. Lauderdale 7.6 PPG and 5.6 RPG. Iverson is not a good college basketball player IMO.

Minnesota, however, has the advantage on the bench.

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I don't really agree with your methods here. The Ohio State starters play more minutes than ours, so it would make sense that they would score more points. And since that's about your only point of analysis, obviously the Buckeyes would come out on top. Plus, Westy scores one less ppg in 7 less minutes, so I don't see Diebler as better than him. And Hoff, since he joined the starting line-up, has scored more than Buford. And, as far as I know, Ralph is back on Saturday, and he has better numbers than Lauderdale. The only one I see as a definite advantage for OSU is Turner over Johnson, but the rest seem to be pretty close. And as you said, we have better depth. And we play better defense.

BigGopherFan said:

Evan Turner vs. Damian Johnson. Evan Turner at 75 percent is better than Damian Johnson. Sorry, I love Johnson, but Turner is a special talent.
Dallas Lauderdale vs. Colton Iverson. Lauderdale 7.6 PPG and 5.6 RPG. Iverson is not a good college basketball player IMO.

Minnesota, however, has the advantage on the bench.

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I've never thought much of Lauderdale, but he has been significantly better this season (still not great). I know RS-Thrizzel is back, however, this is a game where I'm glad we have Iverson to match up, push and elbow with their big horse.

On KFAN this week Double-T was making comparisons between Brandon Roy and Turner...?

Bench advantage: Will we finally see Joseph get 16 or more w/out a poor shooting percentage? Would love to see PC build off his last few games.

josh087 said:

Diebler/Simmons/Hill are the key. Lauderdale won't do anything in the post (please dear God Tubby don't double him).

If two of those guys gets 9-15 pts on 3s each it will be very difficult to win. Turner can get his 20 pts and the Gophers are still in good shape but if they let these guys hit outside shots there will be trouble at Williams.

Expect plenty of pressure on Hill - we'll see if he can handle it. The Buckeyes are not that deep so if we can make these guys run a little bit it could tire them out and make their outside jumpers suffer some.

The inside defenders have to be able to play great help defense when Turner is on the drive.

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Turner is the key player, he always has been and always will be the key player for this OSU team - the stretch without him made that abundantly clear. You have to slow him down & get him to turn the ball over & if you don't, he's the one who's going to get guys like Diebler and Simmons some open looks & once they get some shots to fall, then they start playing better. Turner is going to run the point, Hill might not play much at all. I expect Matta to ride Turner, Lighty, Buford and Diebler as much as possible. Lauderdale is a fairly average college player apart from his shotblocking, so no reason to worry about him burning you on offense.

I personally would take Westbrook over Diebler. Diebler can't create his own shot and he doesn't really do anything other than shoot and make an occasional assist, and he doesn't compete as hard as Westbrook. Diebler compared to Hoffarber, however, is a different story.

Honestly, if I'm a Gopher fan, I'm concerned about my team's prospects this season because you seem to have struggled to beat Penn State at home - PSU is not one of the league's better teams - and don't have any good wins all year outside of Butler. Beating up on bad teams is one thing, winning games against good teams is quite another. I am still trying to figure out where this Gopher team fits in the Big Ten, but so far the performances against the better teams has been below expectations for me.

Now, for the person who said OSU is overrated, well, you kind of have to be rated to be overrated, don't you? Unranked is unranked. Obviously, OSU without Turner isn't anything special, but with him they're absolutely worthy of being considered one of the top teams in the Big Ten. Turner is a difference-maker.

Turner is physically able to play his normal game or else he wouldn't have played against Indiana. Now he might still be somewhat rusty with his skills and conditioning, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him play 30+ minutes in this game, knowing how Matta rides his best players as much as possible. Honestly, the odds are that if he plays less than 30, it's going to be due to foul trouble rather than conditioning.

OSU guy - Turner is by far their best player, obviously. Without him I wouldn't give OSU much of a chance in this game - but since he is playing and we all know how good he is the Gophers can't expect to stop him. He is not the key in the Gophers winning the game.

That's why the key to this game is slowing down the perimeter shooting of the supporting cast. Turner will get his 16-24 pts - but we can't let Diebler/Hill/Simmons combine for 20-25 also. They have to be limited to around 4-5 threes total and not 8-9 total. Those 10-12 "unexpected" pts will be the difference in the game.

Just watch when the Gophers go to OSU. One or two of the guys listed above will get hot and that will pave the way for the Buckeyes to beat MN at home. We just can't let that happen on Saturday and allow a home game to get away from us.

SonOfTheVarsity said:

I don't really agree with your methods here. The Ohio State starters play more minutes than ours, so it would make sense that they would score more points. And since that's about your only point of analysis, obviously the Buckeyes would come out on top. Plus, Westy scores one less ppg in 7 less minutes, so I don't see Diebler as better than him. And Hoff, since he joined the starting line-up, has scored more than Buford. And, as far as I know, Ralph is back on Saturday, and he has better numbers than Lauderdale. The only one I see as a definite advantage for OSU is Turner over Johnson, but the rest seem to be pretty close. And as you said, we have better depth. And we play better defense.

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Diebler is better than Westbrook. He takes better shots and seemingly never misses a 3-pointer. Buford is much more athletic than Hoffarber and is the type of player that causes trouble for Hoff. Yes, Sampson is better than Lauderdale, but only if he's 100 percent. If Sampson goes, I'll bet he won't be fully recovered, but I could be wrong.