Road to Selection Sunday (Week 8)

RPI data (through Sunday's games) courtesy of Jerry Palm & CollegeRPI.com.

BITS & PIECES
1. The top 5 in the RPI heading into the week. ... (1) Duke (9-1); (2) Kansas State (10-1); (3) Temple (9-2); (4) West Virginia (10-0); and (5) Texas (11-0).

2. Revisiting My Preseason Final Four Picks and Where They Stand in the RPI -- West Virginia (#4), Kansas (#5), Villanova (#15), Michigan State (#56). National champion = Rock Chalk.

3. Revisiting My 5 Gopher Goals for the Season -- (1A) Beat Michigan State, the standard bearer in the Big 10; (1B) Beat Illinois in Champaign-Urbana; (2) Finish with no worse than a 7-2 (conference) record at Williams Arena; (3) Finish seeded in the top 5 for the Big Ten Tournament, which would earn the Gophers only their second bye (the other was 2005) since the tournament's inception in 1998; (4) Have a 1st- or 2nd-team All-Big 10 performer; and (5) Win a NCAA Tournament game, which would be the program's first since 1997.

4. Even with a 0-10 record (every game a true road game), the University of Arkansas-Pine Bluff has to be the favorite to win the SWAC title. UAPB has played one of the nation's most difficult schedules, including seven games (Arizona State, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Michigan, Mizzou, Oklahoma State) vs. BCS schools. What's interesting is that UAPB hasn't exactly gotten blown out in these games. The average margin of defeat is 14.6.

5. Dangerous If They Get There -- Look out for Cornell and/or UTEP if they make the NCAA Tournament. These teams have all the necessary tools to pull off an upset or two in the tournament's first weekend.

6. Repeating Myself -- I've said this before, and I'll say it again. If Joe Esposito and Tubby insist they can't get a single major-conference program to agree to a home-and-home that includes a trip to The Barn (personally, I'm not buying it), I'd have no problem whatsoever if they scheduled a "quasi home-and-home" that includes the Metrodome/Target Center/X.

An even better idea? Turn it into a hoops doubleheader like Oklahoma & Oklahoma State do every year in Oklahoma City. For example, the Gophers could play a Missouri or a Tennessee, with the return game being in Kansas City or Nashville. And with the second half of the doubleheader, bring in a regional school like an Iowa, Iowa State, Marquette, Northern Iowa or Wisconsin to play a like opponent. If that's what it takes to get a quality "home" game, let's do it. I think there are plenty enough college hoops fans in the Upper Midwest who would enjoy and appreciate a college hoops doubleheader of that nature.

7. The Envelope Please -- Finally, after too many a*s whoopings at Williams Arena to count, the Big 10 season has arrived. After crunching all the numbers and looking at each team's schedule, here's how I see the conference shaking out:

1st. Michigan State/Purdue share the title at 14-4.
3rd. Wisconsin (12-6)
4th. Ohio State (11-7)
5th. Gophers/Illinois finish deadlocked at 10-8.
7th. Northwestern (9-9)
8th. Michigan (8-10)
9th. Penn State (6-12)
10th. Indiana (3-15)
11th. Iowa (2-16)

THIS WEEK IN THE BIG 10
Monday
Bryant at Indiana

Tuesday
Penn State at Minnesota
Purdue at Iowa

Wednesday
Northwestern at Illinois
Texas-Arlington at Michigan State

New Year's Eve
Michigan at Indiana
Ohio State at Wisconsin

New Year's Day
West Virginia at Purdue

Saturday
Gonzaga vs. Illinois
Michigan State at Northwestern
Minnesota at Iowa

Sunday
Ohio State at Michigan
Wisconsin at Penn State

WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON (NON-BIG 10)
Monday
BYU at Arizona
Portland at Nevada

Tuesday
Cornell at LaSalle
LSU at Xavier
Marquette at West Virginia
Syracuse at Seton Hall
Texas Tech at New Mexico

Wednesday
Connecticut at Cincinnati
South Carolina at Boston College
William & Mary at Maryland

Thursday
Oklahoma at Gonzaga
Richmond at Wake Forest
St. John's at Georgetown
Tennessee at Memphis

Friday
Dayton at New Mexico

Saturday
Baylor at South Carolina
Kansas at Temple
Louisville at Kentucky
Oklahoma State vs. Rhode Island
Pitt at Syracuse
Seton Hall vs. Virginia Tech
Villanova at Marquette

Sunday
Clemson at Duke
Florida at NC State
Missouri State at Northern Iowa
UTEP at Texas Tech

UPSET SPECIAL (3-4)
Seton Hall over Syracuse (Tuesday). Last week -- On target with Oral Roberts' 75-66 win over previously undefeated New Mexico.

THE "STAPLES"
Non-BCS Wins over the Big 6 (by team)
Gonzaga (4) -- Cincinnati, Colorado, Wazzu, Wisconsin
Temple (4) -- Penn State, Seton Hall, Villanova, Virginia Tech
Butler (3) -- Northwestern, Ohio State, UCLA
Northern Iowa (3) -- Boston College, Iowa, Iowa State
Portland (3) -- Minnesota, Oregon, UCLA
Richmond (3) -- Florida, Mississippi State, Mizzou
BYU (2) -- Arizona State, Nebraska
Cornell (2) -- Alabama, St. John's
Loyola Marymount (2) -- Notre Dame, USC
New Mexico (2) -- Cal, Texas A&M
Oral Roberts (2) -- Mizzou, Stanford
Rhode Island (2) -- Boston College, Providence
San Diego (2) -- Oklahoma, Stanford
South Alabama (2) -- Arkansas, Florida
UAB (2) -- Cincinnati, Georgia
UNLV (2) -- Arizona, Louisville
Utah (2) -- Illinois, Michigan
Wichita State (2) -- Iowa, Texas Tech
Wofford (2) -- Georgia, South Carolina
American (1) -- DePaul
Boston U (1) -- Indiana
Bradley (1) -- Illinois
Cal State Fullerton (1) -- UCLA
Central Florida (1) -- Auburn
Central Michigan (1) -- South Florida
Charlotte (1) -- Louisville
Colorado State (1) -- Colorado
Creighton (1) -- Nebraska
Dayton (1) -- Georgia Tech
Duquesne (1) -- Iowa
East Tennessee State (1) -- Arkansas
Florida Gulf Coast (1) -- DePaul
George Mason (1) -- Indiana
Green Bay (1) -- Wisconsin
Harvard (1) -- Boston College
Houston (1) -- Oklahoma
Illinois-Chicago (1) -- Oregon State
Iona (1) -- Providence
Long Beach State (1) -- UCLA
Loyola-Maryland (1) -- Indiana
Missouri State (1) -- Auburn
Montana (1) -- Oregon
Morgan State (1) -- Arkansas
NC-Wilmington (1) -- Penn State
Old Dominion (1) -- Georgetown
Rider (1) -- Mississippi State
Sacramento State (1) -- Oregon State
Saint Joseph's (1) -- Boston College
Saint Louis (1) -- Nebraska
St. Mary's (1) -- Oregon
Sam Houston State (1) -- Auburn
San Diego State (1) -- Arizona
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (1) -- Oregon State
Texas San-Antonio (1) -- Iowa
Troy (1) -- Auburn
Tulane (1) -- Penn State
Tulsa (1) -- Oklahoma State
UTEP (1) -- Oklahoma
Vermont (1) -- Rutgers
VCU (1) -- Oklahoma
Western Carolina (1) -- Louisville
Western Kentucky (1) -- Vandy
William & Mary (1) -- Wake Forest
Xavier (1) -- Cincinnati

WEEK 7 RESUME BUILDERS
1. Arizona over NC State
2. BYU over Nebraska
3. Cornell wins @ St. John's
4. Mizzou over Illinois
5. Nebraska over Tulsa
6. UAB over Butler
7. USC over St. Mary's
8. USC over UNLV
9. Washington over Texas A&M
10. Wazzu over LSU

WEEK 7 MOST STUNNING RESULT
Florida Gulf Coast 64, DePaul 61 -- Mark this game as the unofficial end of the Jerry Wainwright era at DePaul.

MY FANTASTIC 5 (ALPHABETICAL ORDER)
1. Duke (holdover)
2. Kansas (holdover)
3. Purdue (holdover)
4. Texas (holdover)
5. West Virginia (holdover)

MY BIG 10 POWER RANKINGS
1. Purdue (11-0)
2. Wisconsin (10-2)
3. Michigan State (9-3)
4. Northwestern (10-1)
5. Minnesota (9-3)
6. Ohio State (10-2)
7. Illinois (8-4)
8. Penn State (8-4)
9. Michigan (5-5)
10. Indiana (5-6)
11. Iowa (5-7)

BIG 10 IN THE RPI
13. Purdue
29. Wisconsin
40. Northwestern
56. Michigan State
66. Minnesota
92. Ohio State
120. Illinois
164. Iowa
189. Michigan
210. Penn State
248. Indiana

GOPHERS' NONCONFERENCE OPPONENTS IN THE RPI
19. Texas A&M (8-3)
20. Butler (8-4, 1-0)
52. Portland (7-4)
76. Miami-Florida (11-1, 0-1)
93. Morgan State (7-4, 1-0)
106. Saint Joseph's (4-6)
187. Brown (3-7)
192. Tennessee Tech (4-6, 0-1)
206. Stephen F. Austin (5-3)
218. South Dakota State (3-8, 1-1)
283. Northern Illinois (2-7)
330. Utah Valley (2-5)

BCS CONFERENCES HEAD TO HEAD
Standings
1. Big 12 (24-9, 72.7%)
2. ACC (20-18, 52.6%)
3. SEC (21-21, 50%)
4. Big East (16-16, 50%)
5. Big 10 (17-19, 47.2%)
6. Pac 10 (9-24, 27.3%)

Week 7 Results (not listed among resume builders)
Kansas 84, Cal 69
Texas 79, Michigan State 68
Texas Tech 100, Stanford 87
West Virginia 75, Ole Miss 66

Next RTSS: Monday, January 4

I wonder if the difficulty in scheduling another major conference foe has to do with a guaranteed payout that the Gophers/Maturi aren't willing to provide. I find it extremely hard to believe that every team would fear playing at the Barn, especially if other teams like Wisky and the Spartans can schedule top notch foes when they have arguably more significant home court advantages. I know smaller schools are given payouts, do large schools receive them too?

Assuming your conference standings hold up, how many bids do you think the Big Ten gets? Is 9-9 good enough for NU to sneak in? I'm guessing 10-8 would put both the Gophs and Illini squarely on the bubble.

Caravan Shaker said:

I wonder if the difficulty in scheduling another major conference foe has to do with a guaranteed payout that the Gophers/Maturi aren't willing to provide. I find it extremely hard to believe that every team would fear playing at the Barn, especially if other teams like Wisky and the Spartans can schedule top notch foes when they have arguably more significant home court advantages. I know smaller schools are given payouts, do large schools receive them too?

Assuming your conference standings hold up, how many bids do you think the Big Ten gets? Is 9-9 good enough for NU to sneak in? I'm guessing 10-8 would put both the Gophs and Illini squarely on the bubble.

Click to expand...

Larger schools generally do a home and home series. For example, West Virginia is headed to West Lafayette on New Year's Day, and Purdue will head to Morgantown next year.

These really should be pinned to the top of the board. SS does a great job with these and it should be a regular feature here imho.

"Assuming your conference standings hold up, how many bids do you think the Big Ten gets? Is 9-9 good enough for NU to sneak in? I'm guessing 10-8 would put both the Gophs and Illini squarely on the bubble."

Good question. My gut answer is yes, the Gophs would be on the bubble at 10-8. But really, a lot of it depends on which teams they beat within the conference. The Gophers at 10-8 without any wins over Purdue or Michigan State and I think they'd be in serious trouble. But with a couple wins in 4 tries vs. Purdue & Sparty, I'd like their chances.

If Northwestern finishes 9-9, it will be very interesting. The Wildcats have some nice (though none currently of the signature variety) wins (Iowa State, NC State, Notre Dame, Stanford) and are in much better shape for an at-large bid than the Gophers. At this point (a lot can change) I would like their chances of getting in at 9-9, and unlike the Gophers I think at 10-8 they'd be pretty much a sure thing. That's one of the things I'm most intrigued about for the Big 10 season. ... can NW without Kevin Coble get to 9-9 and keep themselves in the at-large conversation?

I think in the end, the Big 10 will get 5 or 6 bids. Seven would be a stretch.

SelectionSunday said:

"Assuming your conference standings hold up, how many bids do you think the Big Ten gets? Is 9-9 good enough for NU to sneak in? I'm guessing 10-8 would put both the Gophs and Illini squarely on the bubble."

Good question. My gut answer is yes, the Gophs would be on the bubble at 10-8. But really, a lot of it depends on which teams they beat within the conference. The Gophers at 10-8 without any wins over Purdue or Michigan State and I think they'd be in serious trouble. But with a couple wins in 4 tries vs. Purdue & Sparty, I'd like their chances.

If Northwestern finishes 9-9, it will be very interesting. The Wildcats have some nice (though none currently of the signature variety) wins (Iowa State, NC State, Notre Dame, Stanford) and are in much better shape for an at-large bid than the Gophers. At this point (a lot can change) I would like their chances of getting in at 9-9, and unlike the Gophers I think at 10-8 they'd be pretty much a sure thing. That's one of the things I'm most intrigued about for the Big 10 season. ... can NW without Kevin Coble get to 9-9 and keep themselves in the at-large conversation?

I think in the end, the Big 10 will get 5 or 6 bids. Seven would be a stretch.

Click to expand...

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/andy_glockner/12/28/glockner.bracket.watch/index.html SI says 6 Big 10 bids, Gophers #7 seed in Jax FL.

Providence, please

dup

The Truth said:

These really should be pinned to the top of the board. SS does a great job with these and it should be a regular feature here imho.

Click to expand...

http://www.realtimerpi.com/2006-2007/rpi_Men.html Kentucky was #12 in RPI back in 2007 but http://www.realtimerpi.com/2005-2006/rpi_Men.html #44 in 2006.

The 2006 and 2007 UK team results were pretty similar.

The RPI ratings are misleading.

What on earth do Kentucky's 2005-06 and 2006-07 teams have to do with this week's report?

SelectionSunday said:

What on earth do Kentucky's 2005-06 and 2006-07 teams have to do with this week's report?

Click to expand...

I stopped asking myself why he posts the things he does long ago.

Keep up the great work SS. I always look forward to these and you're a credit to this board. More posters should take your lead and engage in a wider discussion of basketball.

The Truth said:

These really should be pinned to the top of the board. SS does a great job with these and it should be a regular feature here imho.

Click to expand...

I totally agree. You do a superb job.

Thanks, both of you. Nice to know someone looks at it.